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الخميس، 27 سبتمبر 2012
Market Outlook for February 1, 2012
Yet again markets were gripped by ‘europhoria’ surrounding the latest EU summit and more announcements surrounding plans to save Europe. European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have agreed on a fiscal treaty that will allow for action against high deficit states and calls for members to introduce legislation to limit budget deficits. Markets rallied on the news even though these reforms actually do nothing to resolve the current debt crisis. Britain and the Czech Republic have declined to sign the pact. After having rallied to above 1.3200 yesterday, the Euro gains evaporated before once again rising in Europe today.
The Dollar Index rose yesterday by 0.2% yesterday as the USD gained across the majors. USDJPY continues to hover dangerously close to post war lows but is still managing to hold above 76.00. The inevitable sabre rattling and war cries from the Bank of Japan will intensify over the next few trading sessions but the question will be is “anyone listening and does anyone care?” In Europe, the dollar is falling as equity markets rise.
Yesterday, equity markets were soft. The S&P 500 closed 0.05% lower for its fourth consecutive loss, albeit small, as economic data failed to meet expectations. Consumer confidence came in lower than expected while the ISM business activity index came in lower than even the most pessimistic forecasts. Exxon Mobil fell more than 2% after reported sales trailed estimates and Amazon will open significantly lower today after profits fell more than 50%. European bourses are higher by almost 2% as manufacturing data from the US to China looks positive.
Equity markets have recovered from a soft start to the week with Asian shares rising on optimism surrounding the latest EU summit. After falling yesterday over Greek resistance to outside influence in its budgetary affairs, rising bond yields and the collapse of Spanair, European bourses are now higher by 1% mid session today. After losing ground yesterday for the third day as European leaders lectured to Greece over the nation’s second rescue package, S&P 500 futures are signalling a rise in trade today.
Commodity prices moved lower yesterday with the CRB index losing 1.6 points to 312.31 with initial gains over Euro-optimism evaporating as US economic data disappointed. In Europe, prices are making a comeback with WTI Crude gaining 0.75% to $99.20 0.35% to $98.45. Precious metals gained with with gold rising 0.5% to $1,749 while silver has gained 1.8% to $33.85. Soft commodities are broadly stronger while copper has gained 0.8%.
GOLD continues to show strong price consol-idation to gain slightly to hold around $1,740. The range overnight was $1,724 to $1,747. The price action played perfectly within our support and resistance levels. In what is certainly a good sign for the metal, it managed to hold onto gains even as the USD rose and equity markets fell. The strong bounce off support at $1,725 has gold maintaining its short term bullish trend and we expect another retest of $1,750 imminently. We believe that gold’s status as a store of value and as a safe haven will come to a fore this year as prices ac-celerate towards $2000 by mid year. We remain strongly bullish. Last year we saw both the USD and gold perform better than mpst other asset classes and we continue to see the same trend this year. Look for support at $1,720 to be tested today. If this level holds, our short term bullish call on the metal will be confirmed.
EUR/USD found support at 1.3025 (day low) in early London time perhaps in response to no firm progress being made in the debt restructuring negotiations between Greece and private bond holders. On the other hand, with US interest rates near zero until 2014 it isn’t that attractive to buy USD either in terms of yields. Hence EUR/USD may be trapped between 1.3050 – 1.3150 until the market finds new information to trade with. This may come from today’s data out of Europe (Germany PMI, EMU PMI and CPI) and the US (ADP employment change and ISM manufacturing). We think we may have seen the low for the day but for the topside we like 1.3244 revisited.
USD/JPY continued its five-day losing streak in early London time as it tests the 76.00 big figure. At the time of writing USD/JPY is 76.05 which is today’s low so far. We hear there are stop losses (large) below this figure but margin traders are holding the support line at the moment in the hope of grabbing a bargain. Since the US announced last week that it would keep interest rates near zero at least until late 2014, long term traders are slowly pricing in this factor by selling dollars across the board including selling dollars and buying the yen. Specifically for today, Japanese exporters and model funds were doing most of the selling. Again 75.76 wasn’t tested yesterday but the chances are extremely high today, then 75.55 (Oct low). Watch out for the 75.35 post war low and also watch out for BOJ intervention – real or rumoured. If that happens expect to see 77.12 in a hurry otherwise the trend is strongly bearish.